EUA y el petroleo - Foro Red de Energía

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From: "Hector Touzet" <hec...@htouzet.com>
To: <ReddeEnergia@googlegroups.com>,
	<RedPeruanadelGasNatu...@gruposyahoo.com>,
	<reddeener...@gmail.com>
Subject: EUA y el petroleo
Date: Fri, 19 Sep 2008 13:32:20 -0500
Message-ID: <002e01c91a86$102834a0$2101a8c0@Hector>
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Amigos,

=20

Los principales medios est=E1n proponiendo un debate para que EUA tome
acciones respecto a la reducci=F3n del consumo interno de petr=F3leo,
coordinaci=F3n de aumento de producci=F3n de pa=EDses amigos, cambio de =
su
pol=EDtica energ=E9tica favoreciendo el uso de fuentes de energ=EDa =
alternas, y
una estrategia pol=EDtica para impulsar la reducci=F3n de los precios. =
Ver
art=EDculo.

=20

Comentarios bienvenidos.

=20

Saludos,

=20

Hector Touzet

plaen.blogspot.com

=20

=20

HYPERLINK "http://www.washingtonpost.com/?nav=3Dpf"washingtonpost.com

The Power of Oil Consumers

By Henry A. Kissinger and Martin Feldstein
Thursday, September 18, 2008; A21

The tripling in the price of oil from $30 a barrel in 2001 to around =
$100
today represents the largest transfer of wealth in human history. The 13
HYPERLINK
"http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/OPEC?tid=3Dinformline"OP=
EC
members alone are expected to earn more than $1 trillion this year from =
oil
sales. Inevitably, this will bring with it major political consequences. =
Not
the least significant aspect of this political and economic earthquake =
is
that it is being exacted upon the world's most powerful nations by some =
of
the world's weakest. Yet the victims stand by impotently as if the price =
of
oil were some natural event determined by a competitive economic market =
that
is not and cannot be influenced by political forces.

But the price of oil is not determined by a traditional competitive =
market.
Major producers such as the members of OPEC can and do raise or lower =
the
price of oil by reducing or increasing their rate of production. And =
since
today's oil price also reflects expectations of future supply and =
demand,
these monopolistic suppliers are able to compound the volatility of the
market through statements about their future intentions.

The monopoly suppliers will continue to have strong market power until =
the
consuming nations sharply reduce their dependence on imported oil and
develop a political strategy to counter political manipulation of the =
oil
market or the use of the vast OPEC surpluses to blackmail their =
economies or
individual industries.

The oil-consuming nations are in a position, however, to shape both the
global economic and political balance, provided they coordinate and, to =
some
extent, pool their efforts. America should play a major role in this =
effort.
Rather than wait passively for the next blow to fall, the major =
consuming
nations -- the Group of Seven, together with India, China and Brazil --
should establish a coordinating group to shift the long-term trends of
supply and demand in their favor and to end the blackmail of the strong =
by
the weak.

Coordinated actions could bring down the price of oil by reducing and, =
in
the long term, eliminating the speculative pressures behind recent price
rises as well as by establishing a coherent supply policy. Many of the
measures recommended to achieve this -- such as conservation and the
development of domestic oil supplies and alternative sources of =
renewable
energy -- will take years to become effective. However, even before the
balance of market power has been transformed, the expectation of change
would reduce the price of oil. This would especially become the case if =
the
political impetus behind oil pricing could be reduced or eliminated.

A cooperative policy should also include emergency sharing arrangements =
to
counter selective boycotts or supply interruptions. In the 1970s, the
creation of the HYPERLINK
"http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/International+Energy+Age=
ncy
?tid=3Dinformline"International Energy Agency, with its plans for =
emergency
assistance and financial cooperation, did much to mitigate the rise of =
oil
prices. A broader effort is needed now.

This year's price rise was driven by changes in the expected long-term
demand for oil while supplies remained largely static. New projections =
of
rapidly increasing demand in China and India and of declines in =
production
in Russia and Mexico drove up oil prices because of the expectation of a
collapse in the balance between supply and demand. By the same token,
actions that would slow the growth of demand and speed the rise in =
supply
would translate relatively quickly into a lower current price.

A change in U.S. national energy policies is essential. But those =
policies
would be much more effective as part of a coordinated international =
effort
to increase supply and reduce demand in the global energy market. Such a
policy must take into account the needs of differing regions and achieve
compatibility in policies on conservation and global warming. In the =
United
States, oil is used primarily to make gasoline for automobiles. Only =
about
one-third of oil consumption is for non-transportation uses, primarily =
in
petroleum-based chemical firms. Outside the United States, oil is =
primarily
used for heating and electricity generation. Coordinated policies should
therefore focus on reducing U.S. gasoline use, while other countries =
could
contribute by shifting from oil to hydropower, clean coal technology or
nuclear power to generate electricity.

Increasing the supply of oil deserves to be a high priority. American
policies to increase supply by expanding drilling and by developing oil
shale need to be matched by policies to increase supply abroad. That
requires more investment by state-owned oil providers, the primary =
sources
of oil today.

The oil consumers are in a position to use diplomatic measures to =
establish
a new balance between producers and consumers. Efforts to induce =
producers
to increase supply should be complemented by policies to stabilize the
political situation in oil-producing countries such as Nigeria and to
increase protection of oil shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

Some of the policies to reduce the price of oil would also reduce U.S.
dependence on imported oil without eliminating it. The United States =
will
remain an oil importer until gasoline for automobiles is replaced by
batteries, hydrogen or compressed natural gas. At the same time, for an
interim period, efforts to increase the supply of oil and other carbon =
fuels
may make it more difficult to reduce carbon emissions. But because of =
the
profound political consequences of high oil prices, reducing those =
prices
must be the immediate paramount objective.

=A9 2008 HYPERLINK
"http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Tribune+Company?tid=3Din=
forml
ine"Tribune Media Services Inc.

=20


No virus found in this outgoing message.
Checked by AVG.=20
Version: 7.5.524 / Virus Database: 270.7.0/1680 - Release Date: =
19/09/2008
08:25 a.m.
=20
 =20

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<div class=3DSection1>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D1 face=3DVerdana><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'>Amigos,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D1 face=3DVerdana><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D1 face=3DVerdana><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'>Los
principales medios est=E1n proponiendo un debate para que EUA tome =
acciones
respecto a la reducci=F3n del consumo interno de petr=F3leo, =
coordinaci=F3n de
aumento de producci=F3n de pa=EDses amigos, cambio de su pol=EDtica =
energ=E9tica
favoreciendo el uso de fuentes de energ=EDa alternas, y una estrategia =
pol=EDtica
para impulsar la reducci=F3n de los precios. Ver =
art=EDculo.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D1 face=3DVerdana><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D1 face=3DVerdana><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'>Comentarios
bienvenidos.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D1 face=3DVerdana><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D1 face=3DVerdana><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'>Saludos,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D1 face=3DVerdana><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><st1:PersonName ProductID=3D"Hector Touzet&#13;" =
w:st=3D"on"><st1:PersonName
 w:st=3D"on"><font size=3D1 face=3DVerdana><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'>Hector
  Touzet</span></font></st1:PersonName><o:p></o:p></st1:PersonName></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D1 face=3DVerdana><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'>plaen.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>=


<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D1 face=3DVerdana><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D1 face=3DVerdana><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><b><font size=3D5 face=3DVerdana><span lang=3DEN-US
style=3D'font-size:18.0pt;font-weight:bold'><a
href=3D"http://www.washingtonpost.com/?nav=3Dpf"><font =
color=3Dblack><span
style=3D'color:windowtext;text-decoration:none'><img border=3D0 =
width=3D190
height=3D30 id=3D"_x0000_i1025" =
src=3D"cid:image001....@01C91A5C.22827C20" vspace=3D2
alt=3Dwashingtonpost.com></span></font></a><o:p></o:p></span></font></b><=
/p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><b><font size=3D5 face=3DVerdana><span lang=3DEN-US
style=3D'font-size:18.0pt;font-weight:bold'>The Power of Oil =
Consumers</span></font></b><span
lang=3DEN-US><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p><font size=3D2 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt'>By
Henry A. Kissinger and Martin Feldstein<br>
Thursday, September 18, 2008; A21</span></font><span =
lang=3DEN-US><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>The
tripling in the price of oil from $30 a barrel in 2001 to around $100 =
today
represents the largest transfer of wealth in human history. The 13 =
</span><a
href=3D"http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/OPEC?tid=3Dinform=
line"><span
lang=3DEN-US>OPEC</span></a></font><span lang=3DEN-US> members alone are =
expected
to earn more than $1 trillion this year from oil sales. Inevitably, this =
will
bring with it major political consequences. Not the least significant =
aspect of
this political and economic earthquake is that it is being exacted upon =
the
world's most powerful nations by some of the world's weakest. Yet the =
victims
stand by impotently as if the price of oil were some natural event =
determined
by a competitive economic market that is not and cannot be influenced by
political forces.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>But
the price of oil is not determined by a traditional competitive market. =
Major
producers such as the members of OPEC can and do raise or lower the =
price of
oil by reducing or increasing their rate of production. And since =
today's oil
price also reflects expectations of future supply and demand, these
monopolistic suppliers are able to compound the volatility of the market
through statements about their future =
intentions.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>The
monopoly suppliers will continue to have strong market power until the
consuming nations sharply reduce their dependence on imported oil and =
develop a
political strategy to counter political manipulation of the oil market =
or the
use of the vast OPEC surpluses to blackmail their economies or =
individual
industries.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>The
oil-consuming nations are in a position, however, to shape both the =
global
economic and political balance, provided they coordinate and, to some =
extent,
pool their efforts. America should play a major role in this effort. =
Rather
than wait passively for the next blow to fall, the major consuming =
nations --
the Group of Seven, together with India, China and Brazil -- should =
establish a
coordinating group to shift the long-term trends of supply and demand in =
their
favor and to end the blackmail of the strong by the =
weak.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>Coordinated
actions could bring down the price of oil by reducing and, in the long =
term,
eliminating the speculative pressures behind recent price rises as well =
as by
establishing a coherent supply policy. Many of the measures recommended =
to
achieve this -- such as conservation and the development of domestic oil
supplies and alternative sources of renewable energy -- will take years =
to
become effective. However, even before the balance of market power has =
been
transformed, the expectation of change would reduce the price of oil. =
This
would especially become the case if the political impetus behind oil =
pricing
could be reduced or eliminated.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>A
cooperative policy should also include emergency sharing arrangements to
counter selective boycotts or supply interruptions. In the 1970s, the =
creation
of the </span><a
href=3D"http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/International+Ene=
rgy+Agency?tid=3Dinformline"><span
lang=3DEN-US>International Energy Agency</span></a></font><span =
lang=3DEN-US>, with
its plans for emergency assistance and financial cooperation, did much =
to
mitigate the rise of oil prices. A broader effort is needed =
now.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>This
year's price rise was driven by changes in the expected long-term demand =
for
oil while supplies remained largely static. New projections of rapidly
increasing demand in China and India and of declines in production in =
Russia
and Mexico drove up oil prices because of the expectation of a collapse =
in the
balance between supply and demand. By the same token, actions that would =
slow
the growth of demand and speed the rise in supply would translate =
relatively
quickly into a lower current price.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>A
change in U.S. national energy policies is essential. But those policies =
would
be much more effective as part of a coordinated international effort to
increase supply and reduce demand in the global energy market. Such a =
policy
must take into account the needs of differing regions and achieve =
compatibility
in policies on conservation and global warming. In the United States, =
oil is
used primarily to make gasoline for automobiles. Only about one-third of =
oil
consumption is for non-transportation uses, primarily in petroleum-based
chemical firms. Outside the United States, oil is primarily used for =
heating
and electricity generation. Coordinated policies should therefore focus =
on
reducing U.S. gasoline use, while other countries could contribute by =
shifting
from oil to hydropower, clean coal technology or nuclear power to =
generate
electricity.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>Increasing
the supply of oil deserves to be a high priority. American policies to =
increase
supply by expanding drilling and by developing oil shale need to be =
matched by
policies to increase supply abroad. That requires more investment by
state-owned oil providers, the primary sources of oil =
today.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>The
oil consumers are in a position to use diplomatic measures to establish =
a new
balance between producers and consumers. Efforts to induce producers to
increase supply should be complemented by policies to stabilize the =
political
situation in oil-producing countries such as Nigeria and to increase =
protection
of oil shipping routes such as the Strait of =
Hormuz.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>Some
of the policies to reduce the price of oil would also reduce U.S. =
dependence on
imported oil without eliminating it. The United States will remain an =
oil
importer until gasoline for automobiles is replaced by batteries, =
hydrogen or
compressed natural gas. At the same time, for an interim period, efforts =
to
increase the supply of oil and other carbon fuels may make it more =
difficult to
reduce carbon emissions. But because of the profound political =
consequences of
high oil prices, reducing those prices must be the immediate paramount
objective.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span =
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'>=A9 2008 <a
href=3D"http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Tribune+Company?t=
id=3Dinformline">Tribune
Media Services Inc.</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D1 face=3DVerdana><span =
style=3D'font-size:9.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

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<P><FONT SIZE=3D2>No virus found in this outgoing message.<BR>
Checked by AVG.<BR>
Version: 7.5.524 / Virus Database: 270.7.0/1680 - Release Date: =
19/09/2008 08:25 a.m.<BR>
</FONT> </P>

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